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Market Review January 2024

Month in Review as at January 2024

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Index returns at January 2024 (%)

Data source: Bloomberg & Financial Express. Returns greater than one year are annualised.
Commentary regarding equity indices below references performance without including the effects of currency (unless specifically stated).

 

Key Points

  • The Australian market continued its march ahead in January, finishing 1.2% higher. Gains in the market were led by Energy, Financials ex Property and Healthcare. 
  • Overall, overseas markets finished higher, noting the experience in Asian markets was different with weaknesses in China and Hong Kong. 

Australian equities 

In January, the ASX 200 achieved a record high, ending the month 1.2% up. Most sectors (eight out of 11) closed the month positively. Lower-than-expected inflation for the December 2023 quarter buoyed investors. Energy (+5.2%), Financials (+5.0%), and Health Care (+4.3%) were the top performers, while Materials (-4.8%) and Utilities (-1.5%) lagged. 

Energy stocks, especially Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) and Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), benefited from positive uranium market news. BOE shares were also boosted by the positive drilling results at its Honeymoon mine in South Australia. The Financials sector was lifted by the “Big 4” banks, despite mixed outlooks for their upcoming earnings. 

Conversely, Materials stocks suffered due to falling iron ore and lithium prices. Lithium miners had a tough January as supply outstripped demand, attributed to slower electric vehicle uptake. Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA) and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) shares were particularly impacted by the lithium outlook, and BHP (ASX: BHP) also took a hit in January. 

As we approach February’s reporting season, the robust market of the past two months could face a downturn if earnings disappoint. 

Global Equities 

Global equity markets continued to gain despite US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noting rate cuts were unlikely in March. The S&P500 rose 1.7% (in local currency terms) while similarly the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9% (in local currency terms) despite a disappointing start to the Q4 earnings results season. 

Similarly, European markets posted minor gains, with the DAX 30 Index finishing up 0.9% (in local currency terms). This was despite the European Central Bank holding off on rate cuts and keeping interest rates at a record high. Chinese markets crashed to a 5-year low as manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth straight month, with the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index dropping 6.29% and 9.16% respectively (in local currency terms), spurred further by the liquidation of property giant Evergrande by a Hong Kong court. 

Property 

The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Accumulation index started the year positively in January, with the index finishing the month 1.3% higher. Conversely, global real estate equities (represented by the FTSE EPR/NAREIT Developed Ex Australia Index (AUD Hedged)) regressed, returning -3.6% for the month. Australian infrastructure started the year negatively, with the S&P/ASX Infrastructure Index TR returning -1.8%. 

The Australian residential property market experienced an increase by +0.4% Month on Month (as represented by CoreLogic’s five capital city aggregate). Perth was the biggest riser (+1.6%), followed by Adelaide (+1.1%) and Brisbane (+0.9%). In contrast, Melbourne (-0.1%) was the only city to deliver negative returns in January. 

Fixed Income 

Amidst global economic uncertainty, Australian bond markets have moved cautiously in January, with investors awaiting the RBA’s February decision. The focus remains on monitoring the evolving economic conditions, particularly the interplay between a robust labor market and tempered household spending. Bond yields mirrored this cautious optimism, with the 2-Year decreasing marginally by 2bps and the 10-Year Australian Bond yields experiencing a slight increase by 6bps, as investors seek clarity on future monetary policy directions. 

Globally, the fixed income landscape remained resilient. U.S. Treasury yields saw marginal movement, with the 2-Year decreasing by 5bps and the 10-Year yields increasing by 3bps, as markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance on interest rates amidst a stabilized inflation outlook. Meanwhile, UK Gilts rebounded with a modest increase in yields, with the 2- and 10-Year Gilt yields increasing by 25bps and 26bps respectively, reflecting a recalibration of market expectations following the Bank of England’s rate decisions. 

Investors are navigating the early 2024 bond markets with an eye on central banks’ commitment to inflation targets and the potential impact of global economic shifts. 

Economic key points 

  • Australian inflation fell to 4.1% for the December quarter. 
  • Inflation fell in the UK and Eurozone but rose in the US. 
  • The Fed, BoE and ECB left cash rates unchanged at their January meetings. 

Australia 

Inflation retreated to a two-year low of 4.1% in the December quarter, below the expected 4.3%. For the quarter alone, inflation rose 0.6%, half the pace of the September quarter and below the anticipated 0.8%. 

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 81 in January as a surge in the cost of living and high interest rates continue to dominate sentiment. 

Retail sales fell 2.7% in December, missing market estimates of a 0.1% rise, with the annual rate increasing 0.8%. 

Composite PMI jumped to 49 in January, still in contraction territory but services new business activity has notably stabilised. The NAB business confidence index rose to -1 in December, supported by a pick-up in the mining and retail sectors. 

The trade surplus declined to $10.96 billion in December, just below the market forecast of $11 billion. 

US 

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 5.25-5.50% in its January meeting. The Fed said it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. The comments were seen as more hawkish than expected as there was no mention of near-term rate cuts. 

Annual inflation was 3.4% in December, higher than the expected 3.2%, as energy prices dropped at a slower rate. Meanwhile, PPI unexpectedly decreased 0.1% in December, mainly due to a 12.4% fall in diesel prices. The economy added 353,000 jobs in January, well above the anticipated 180,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 

Services PMI came in at 52.5 in January indicating that the services sector is back in expansion territory. This result, combined with extremely strong employment figures suggests that economic growth momentum has continued into the new year. This has further diminished expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve 

Consumer sentiment rose to 79 in January, the highest reading since July 2021. 

Euro area 

The ECB maintained interest rates at 4.5% despite the steady improvement in inflation and ongoing weakness in economic activity. Governing Council member Mario Centeno took a dovish stance by commenting that rate cuts should start sooner rather than later, and in small steps rather than abruptly. Annual inflation dropped slightly to 2.8% in January, matching market expectations. 

PPI fell 0.8% in December, with the annual rate dropping to 10.6% as energy prices continued to fall. 

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in December, matching market expectations. 

Retail sales fell 1.1% in December, marginally below the expected -1.0%, as persistent high inflation and interest rates continued to dampen demand. This was also reflected in consumer confidence, which fell 1 point to 16.1. 

The Composite PMI rose to 47.9 in January, in line with expectations, with services PMI falling to 48.4, representing the sixth consecutive contraction of activity. 

UK 

The Bank of England left rates unchanged at its January meeting and confirmed they are officially warming up to a rate cut. BoE Governor Bailey had three key messages for the market: that the upside bias for rates is gone, that “we are not there yet” with regards to inflation, and that the BoE will not speculate on the timing of rate cuts. 

Consumer confidence rose to -19 in January, as lower inflation and a national insurance rate cut buoyed sentiment. Retail fell 3.2% in December, exceeding the expected 0.5% fall. Annual sales fell 2.4%, well below the expected 1.1% growth. 

China 

China’s consumer prices fell by 0.8% year on year in January, the biggest fall in more than 14 years and worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% fall. 

PPI decreased 0.2% in January, bringing the annual rate to -2.5%, marginally above the expected -2.6%. While marking the softest drop in four months, the latest result was the 16th straight month of contraction in factory gate prices, reflecting persistent deflation forces in the economy. 

Composite PMI was 52.5 in January, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth in private sector activity. Services activity inched down to 52.7 amid a softer rise in new orders. 

Japan 

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.1% and maintained a 0% target for its 10-year bond yields in its January meeting. In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed CPI readings for FY 2024 to 2.4% from October’s projections of 2.8%, reflecting a recent decline in oil prices. 

The annual inflation rate fell to 2.6% in December as food prices rose the least in 14 months. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in December, matching market expectations. 

The consumer confidence index rose to 38 in January, above the forecast 37.6, with sentiment increasing in all components. Retail sales fell 2.9% in December, with the annual rate rising 2.1%, well below the anticipated 4.7%. 

December saw Composite PMI rise to 51.5 in January, with continuing service sector growth offsetting a further easing in manufacturing production. 

Currencies 

The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated over the month of January, closing 1.9% lower in trade weighted terms to 61.4, appreciating against the Japanese Yen (JPY) whilst depreciating against the US Dollar (USD), Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR). 

The AUD experienced its first monthly decline against the USD since October, driven by a rebound in the USD. Tensions escalating in the Middle East and ongoing concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy pushed the AUD lower in the first half of January. Over the remainder of the month, the AUD remained stable before depreciating on the last day of January following a softer-than-expected Australian Q4 CPI, ruling out a further cash rate increase from the RBA. 

Relative to the AUD, the USD led the pack in January, appreciating by 3.2%. Conversely, the JPY was the laggard of the month, depreciating in relative terms by 0.5% against the AUD. Year-on-year, the AUD remains behind the GBP, EUR, and USD by -9.3%, -6.3% and – 6.4% respectively, whilst ahead of the JPY by 5.2%. 

 

 

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Market Review October 2023

Month in Review as at October 2023

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Index returns at October 2023 (%)

Data source: Bloomberg & Financial Express. Returns greater than one year are annualised.
Commentary regarding equity indices below references performance without including the effects of currency (unless specifically stated).

 

Market Key Points

  • The Australian market continued its decline in October finishing the month lower by 3.8% with heavy falls in Information Technology, Health Care and Industrials, with Utilities being the only sector in the black.
  • Overseas markets also declined, with falls across both developed and emerging markets.

Australian equities

October saw the ASX 200 finish down 3.8%, marking the third consecutive month of negative returns. Ten out of eleven sectors finished in the red, with Utilities finishing October as the only gainer (1.7%), while Information Technology (IT) (-7.6%), Health Care (-7.2%), Industrials (-6.4%), and Real Estate (-6.1%) saw losses. Several factors have contributed to the drag on returns, including stubborn inflation, rising bond yields, tentative company earnings outlooks and ongoing geo-political tension.

Utilities benefitted as investors moved to defensives, while IT was hit particularly hard by rising government bond yields. Megaport, a constituent of the IT sector, was a significant drag, as its quarterly customer growth report concerned investors. Expectations for a November RBA rate rise were high following accelerating retail spending data and a stickier than expected inflation report. This sentiment of rising interest rates was echoed in the yield-sensitive Real Estate sector as it saw a significant downturn.

Global Equities

Global Equities had another negative month across the board. Developed markets outperformed their emerging market counterparts, returning -1.0% (MSCI World Ex- Australia Index (AUD)) versus a -2.0% return according to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (AUD).

Investor concerns continue around interest rates remaining higher for longer. US equities declined following the Federal Reserve’s stance of a “restrictive” policy until inflation seems to ease. This saw the S&P500 Index decline by -2.1% (in local currency terms) during the month. The same concerns were raised in the UK, also holding interest rates at 15-year historical highs. The FTSE 100 Index returned a loss of -3.7% (in local currency terms) for the month.

Equities across Asia were also predominantly negative. China’s economic growth recovery plans have seen a relative slowdown, due to headwinds in the real estate sector and investor pessimism around the levels of Government involvement. This was reflected by the CSI 300 Index, which returned -3.1% (in local currency terms) for the month.

Property

Local and Global REITs continued to sell off during October. Domestically the A-REIT index (represented by the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Accumulation Index) ended the month –5.8% lower. Global REITS (represented by the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Ex Australia Index (AUD Hedged)) slightly outperformed the local REIT index, albeit still experiencing a significant drawdown of –4.4% during the month. Australian infrastructure finished lower through October, with the S&P/ASX Infrastructure Index TR returning –3.1% for the month.

October saw some activity on the M&A front across the A-REIT sector. Mirvac (ASX: MGR) entered into an agreement to acquire land lease operator Serenitas for $643mn. The acquisition expands Mirvac’s residential offering and makes them one of the largest owners in the land lease community sector. Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) announced the divestment of two assets for a combined value of $70 during the first quarter of FY24. Dexus (ASX: DXS) announced that long standing CEO Darren Steinberg will step down after 11 years in the role in 2024 and are yet to announce a replacement.

The Australian residential property market experienced a +0.9% change month on month represented by Core Logic’s five capital city aggregate. Perth (+1.6%), Brisbane (+1.4%) and Adelaide (+1.3%) were the best performers. Notably, all five cities experienced positive change month on month through October.

Fixed Income

Michele Bullock has kept the cash rate at 4.10% in her first meeting as Governor of the RBA. The month saw bond yields rise, with Australian 10 and 2-Year Government Bond yields rising by 44bps and 37bps respectively. Unsurprisingly the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index returned -1.85% and the Bloomberg AusBond Credit 0+ Year Index AUD returned -0.77% over the month. The Australian economy has remained strong, meaning inflation has been slower to fall. Another rate hike is priced in for the RBA’s November Cup Day meeting.

Yields in the US continued to rise this month with US 10-Year Treasury note yields rising 36bps and 2-Year Treasury note yields rising 5bps. Strong economic data has kept central banks hawkish, and a peak this month in yields represented the highest yields for US 10-Year Treasury since 2007. However, the strong job market has maintained higher consumer spending levels and future rate hikes may lead to further rate hikes from the Fed.

Key Economic Points

  • The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.1%, but higher than expected inflation and retail sales in September indicate a rate rise in November.
  • The US GDP for 3Q23 was 4.9%, contrasting with the Eurozone’s -0.1% for the same period.
  • Eurozone inflation dropped unexpectedly to 2.9%, with the US steady at 3.7%. The UK remains the outlier with a stubbornly high rate of 6.7%.

Australia

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.1% in October, however higher than expected inflation and retail spending data in September increases the likelihood of a rise in November. Inflation for the September quarter rose to 1.2%, with the annual rate registering 5.4%, down from 6.0% in the previous quarter. The most significant price rise for the quarter was 7.2% in automotive fuel, the biggest rise since March 2022, which included the start of the war in Ukraine.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 82 in October, but optimism remains in short supply in the face of persistently high inflation and renewed rate rise concerns. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in September, slightly below market expectations. Retail sales increased by 0.9% in September, largely due to a warmer than usual start to Spring, while annual sales rose 2.0%.

The composite PMI fell to 47.6 in October, driven by a solid decline in private sector activity. The NAB business confidence index also fell to 1 in September, well below average.

The trade surplus came in at a 30-month low of $6.79 billion in September, well below market forecasts of $9.4 billion.

Global

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised down its forecast for global growth in 2024 to 2.9%, with the 2023 figure remaining at 3.0% – both below the 3.8% historical average. Advanced economies are expected to have growth rates of 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, amid stronger-than-expected US momentum but weaker-than- expected growth in the euro area. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024, with a downward revision of 0.1% in 2024, reflecting the property sector crisis in China.

US

GDP growth for 3Q23 came in at 4.9%, well ahead of expectations and the prior quarter result, with consumer spending rising the most since 4Q21, led by housing and utilities. Annual inflation was steady at 3.7% in September, slightly above market expectations of 3.6%, as a softer decline in energy prices offset slowing inflationary pressures in other categories.

The economy added 150,000 jobs in October, below the anticipated 180,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%. The labor market is slowly cooling as several strikes including from members of the United Auto Workers union weighed on manufacturing payrolls.

Consumers remain unsure about the economic outlook with confidence dropping to 63.8 in October. Retail sales in September increased 0.7%, well above the 0.3% forecast, with the annual rate increasing 3.75%.

The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 50.7 in October, a marginal increase on the previous month, despite fragile demand conditions.

The trade deficit widened to US$65.1 billion in September, above the forecast US$59.9 billion deficit.

Euro zone

The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 4.5% at its October meeting, pausing at a 22-year high following ten consecutive rate hikes since July 2022. GDP shrank by 0.1% in 3Q23 while annual inflation slowed to +2.9% for October, its lowest rate since mid-2021. This suggests that the ECB is almost certainly finished raising interest rates.

PPI fell to 0.5% in September, with the annual rate dropping by 12.4% as energy costs continued to fall. Unemployment rose to 6.5% in September, above the market forecast of 6.4%.

Consumer confidence dropped to -17.9 in October, as continued sticky inflation eroded purchasing power. Retail sales fell 0.3% in September, exceeding the market expectations of 0.2%, suggesting that consumer demand is continuing to face challenges due to high interest rates and sticky inflation. The Composite PMI was lower at 46.5 in October, with a pronounced deterioration in the services sector.

UK

UK annual inflation remained at 6.7% in September, above the expected 6.6%, with core inflation dropping to 6.1%. Both these figures remain significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target, further complicating the task for policymakers who are expected to keep interest rates unchanged in November.

PPI fell to 0.1% in September, compared to market expectations of a 0.2% decline. Consumer confidence fell sharply to -30 in September as the high cost of living and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Retail sales dropped 0.9% in September, against an anticipated 0.2% fall. Annual sales fell 1.0%, more than the expected -0.1%.

China

The Chinese economy expanded by 4.9% in 3Q23, beating market forecasts of 4.4% and offering hopes that it will meet the official annual target of around 5% this year, as sustained stimulus from Beijing offset the impact of a prolonged property crisis and weak trade.

Chinese manufacturing data for October was well below market expectations. Both the official government and private Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices fell below 50, returning to a contraction of activity. The Chinese government’s non-manufacturing PMI also fell in October, indicating a slowdown in the construction and broader services sectors.

The unemployment rate improved to 5.0% in September, the lowest figure for nearly two years.

Annual inflation remained unchanged at 0% in September, ahead of the anticipated 0.2%. Annual retail sales grew 5.5% in September, exceeding market estimates of 4.9%. This is the ninth consecutive month of increases and the highest in four months.

Japan

The Bank of Japan modified its yield curve control policy, but not as much as investors had expected. The central bank had maintained a 1.0% upper limit on the 10-year government bond yield since July, but has now withdrawn its pledge to defend that level with unlimited bond buying, which leaves it more as a loose reference point rather than a rigid cap. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.0% in September, below the market forecast of 3.1%. This is the lowest reading in a year and core inflation dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%.

The unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in September, in line with market expectations. The consumer confidence index rose to 35.7 in October, with sentiment increasing in most components. Retail sales fell 0.1% in September, with the annual rate rising 5.8%, just below the forecast 5.9%. The composite PMI came 50.5 in October, while this represents the tenth month of expansion, it is the weakest reading.

Currencies

The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated over the month of October, closing -1.5% lower in trade weighted terms to 60.2, depreciating against all four referenced currencies in this update.

The fluctuations in the AUD throughout the month were linked to various factors, including the distressing events in the Middle East, US 10-year bond yields reaching their highest levels since 2007, adjustments in RBA interest rate hike predictions prompted by Q3 CPI data, and the S&P500 following the correction in Hong Kong and China stock markets.

Relative to the AUD, the Euro (EUR) led the pack in October, appreciating by 1.5%. Conversely, the Japanese Yen (JPY) was the laggard of the month, albeit appreciating in relative terms by 0.1% against the AUD. Year-on-year, the AUD remains behind the Pound Sterling (GBP), EUR and USD by -6.4%, -7.3% and -0.9% respectively, whilst ahead of the JPY by 1.0%.

Important notice: This document is published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No.421445 (Lonsec).
Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is a “class service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) or limited to “General
Advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001(Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (‘financial circumstances’) of any particular person. It is not a “personalised service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) and does not constitute a recommendation to purchase, redeem or sell the relevant financial product(s).
Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Research Pty Ltd (ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445) (Lonsec). This report is subject to copyright of Lonsec. Except for the temporary copy held in a computer’s cache and a single permanent copy for your personal reference or other than as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this report may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, micro-copying, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of Lonsec. This report may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. Any such material is the intellectual property of that third party or its content providers. The same restrictions applying above to Lonsec copyrighted material, applies to such third party content.
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