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Federal Budget 2023 Summary

Introduction

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On the evening of 9 May 2023, the Government delivered its second Budget in the current parliamentary term.

Inflationary pressures, interest rates and escalating costs of living have all had a significant impact on the lives of every-day Australians. The Budget needs to deliver the right balance of spending and savings.

This year’s Budget has a strong emphasis on providing cost of living relief, strengthening Medicare, and investing in a stronger and more secure economy. There were very few surprises and most of the significant announcements had been made prior to the Budget being released.

Importantly, it goes without saying the measures announced in the Budget are not a fait accompli. They will be subject to the successful passage of relevant legislation.

Highlights

2022-23
SURPLUS

$4.2bn

ENERGY BILL
RELIEF

$3bn

STRENGTHENING
MEDICARE

$5.7bn

FALLING
INFLATION

3¼% by 2023-24

The state of the economy

Perhaps the surprise in this year’s Budget was the announcement of a surplus for the 2022-23 financial year of $4.2 billion. This is the first surplus since 2007-08 and represents significant turnaround from the projected $36.9 billion deficit forecast in the October 2022 Budget.

Real GDP growth is expected to be 1½% for 2023-24 before rising to 2¼% in 2024-25.

The unemployment rate in recent years has placed Australia in an enviable position. The currently historically low unemployment rate is expected to increase marginally in 2023-24 and 2024-25.

Much of the focus of the past year or so has been the rapid rise in the inflation rate. The Government predicts the inflation rate has now peaked and is starting to moderate. The inflation rate for 2023-24 is forecast to be 3¼% and will return to the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2-3% by 2024-25.

The big-ticket items in this year’s Budget include:

  • Cost-of-living relief,
  • Increased Parenting Payment (Single), JobSeeker, and Youth Allowance,
  • Further investment in renewable energy

Now for a more detailed look at some of the key announcements.

Superannuation

The Budget was decidedly quiet on the superannuation front this year. The only measures of any significance were:

Better targeted super concessions

This simply repeats the release made on 28 February 2023 when the Government announced plans to proportionately increase the tax on a person’s total superannuation balance that exceeds $3 million by an additional 15%. The Budget announcement does not depart from the initial proposal despite the measure having been open for public consultation between 31 March and 17 April 2023.

This measure will not apply until 1 July 2025 and is only expected to affect 80,000 individuals, at least in the early stages. Yet, this is expected to increase as the $3 million threshold is not indexed.

This measure will also extend to members of defined benefit superannuation schemes.

Securing Australians Superannuation Package.

Employers are currently required to pay superannuation guarantee contributions for their employees by the 28th day of the month following the end of each quarter. The Budget proposes that from 1 July 2026, employers will be required to pay their employees superannuation guarantee contributions on the same day they pay their employees. This initiative will help to counter the underpayment or non-payment of superannuation guarantee contributions, which remains a significant problem.

Self manged super funds – amendments to non-arm’s length (NALI) income provisions

The provisions announced by the previous Government covering the NALI provisions as they apply to expenditure incurred by superannuation funds will be amended to provide more certainty.

In particular, the income subject NALI provisions will be limited to twice the level of a general expense. In addition, fund income subject to NALI will exclude contributions.

Perhaps what was more notable from the Budget was what wasn’t mentioned.

Pension drawdowns

For the past couple of financial years, the minimum prescribed income to be drawn from a pension account has been discounted by 50%. Discounting was due to end on 30 June 2023.

The Budget did not include any reference to the current 50% discount being extended beyond 30 June 2023.

Legacy pension amnesty

In its 2021 Budget, the previous Government announced their intention to allow a two-year window (from 1 July 2022) to allow people with old-style defined benefit income stream products (e.g. lifetime, life expectancy, and market linked pensions) to exit those products without incurring tax or social security penalties. Unfortunately, legislation to implement this opportunity was not passed before the last Federal Election was called.

While it has been hinted the current government will revisit this proposal, the Budget was silent on this.

Transfer balance cap indexation

The general transfer balance cap is scheduled to increase to $1.9 million from 1 July 2023.

While the method of indexation is enshrined in current law, there had been some concern the Government might move to pause or limit indexation.

Again, the Budget was silent on any changes to the indexation of the general transfer balance cap, so we expect the cap to increase to $1.9 million from 1 July 2023.

Income Tax

Like superannuation, the Budget was very quiet on income tax, with a couple of minor exceptions.

Stage 3 rates and thresholds from 2024-25 onwards

The Budget did not announce any changes to the Stage 3 personal income tax cuts that are set to commence from 1 July 2024.

Under the Stage 3 tax changes from 1 July 2024, as previously legislated, the 32.5% marginal tax rate will be cut to 30% for one big tax bracket between $45,000 and $200,000. This will more closely align the middle tax bracket of the personal income tax system with corporate tax rates. The 37% tax bracket will be entirely abolished at this time.

Therefore, from 1 July 2024, there will only be 3 personal income tax rates – 19%, 30% and 45%. From 1 July 2024, taxpayers earning between $45,000 and $200,000 will face a marginal tax rate of 30%.

Tax rates and income thresholds – from 2024-25 onwards:

Exempting lump sums in arrears from the Medicare Levy

This initiative, due to apply from 1 July 2024, will ensure that low-income earners don’t pay a higher Medicare Levy because of receiving an eligible lump sum payment, such as compensation for underpaid wages.

While this is worthwhile for those affected, it is expected to have minimal impact as the cost to the Budget is only $2m over the next five years.

Medicare levy low-income threshold

As occurs most years, the income thresholds applying to the Medicare Levy are to increase from 1 July 2022.

The proposed thresholds are:

Small Business

To provide continued support to small businesses (those with an aggregate turnover of less than $10 million) the Government has announced a temporary increase in the instant asset write-off threshold to $20,000. This will apply from 1 July 2023 and will continue until 30 June 2024.

Importantly, the instant asset write-off applies per asset so small business may be able to access this opportunity on multiple occasions.

Aged Care

The Government has committed to spending a total of $36 billion on the aged care sector in the 2023-24 year with a focus on increased wages for aged care workers, funding to help improve the quality of care for both home care recipients and those in residential care facilities and additional funding to implement recommendations identified in the Royal Commission into Aged Care.

Wages to increase by 15%

From 30 June 2023, it is proposed that a 15% increase to award wages will be available for many aged care workers including registered nurses, enrolled nurses, assistants in nursing, personal care workers, home care workers, recreational activity officers, and some head chefs and cooks.

Implementation of Royal Commission initiatives

Over the next 5 years, the Government will provide funding exceeding $300 million to implement recommendations from the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety including:

  • Enhancements to the Star Rating system to improve accountability and transparency of aged care providers,
  • The development and implementation of a new, stronger Aged Care Regulatory Framework to support the new Age Care Act which is due to commence from 1 July 2024,
  • Establishment of a national worker screening and registration scheme and the development, monitoring and enforcement of food and nutritional standards.

Improvements to care at home

Funding has been committed to improve in-home aged care by implementing a range of initiatives including the release of an additional 9,500 Home Care Packages and the design, build and implementation of the new Support at Home Program which is proposed to commence from 1 July 2025.

Welfare

Delivering cost-of-living relief was a key focus for the Government in this year’s budget including reduced energy bills, reduced health costs and increases to Rent Assistance for 1.1 million households.

Energy bill relief

Two initiatives have been announced to help reduce energy bills for eligible Australian households.

Firstly, the Commonwealth Government in conjunction with state and territory governments will provide targeted electricity bill relief of up to $500 for eligible households. The amount that will be available will depend on which state or territory you live in.

To be eligible for the bill relief, you will be the primary electricity account holder and you must also hold an eligible concession card or receive an eligible government payment in your specific state or territory.

The second initiative announced was the establishment of the Household Energy Upgrades Fund to support home upgrades that improve energy performance and save energy, therefore providing further reductions to energy bills.

Reducing out-of-pocket health costs

From 1 July 2023, a range of measures have been announced to help reduce out-of-pocket health costs including:

  • Tripling incentives for doctors to provide bulk billing,
  • Investing in more bulk billing Urgent Care Clinics,
  • Improving access to medicines, vaccinations and related services delivered by pharmacies.

The Government also proposes to allow 2 months’ worth of certain PBS medicines to be dispensed by pharmacies from 1 September 2023.

Additional support to help combat rental affordability

With rental prices in most Australian locations increasing rapidly over the past decade, rental affordability for many, including those on Government income support and family benefits, is a major problem.

To assist, the maximum rates of the Commonwealth Rent Assistance will increase by 15%. It is projected that this will support over 1 million households including veterans, pensioners, job seekers, students and those receiving family tax benefits.

Social Security

Some positive news for those receiving working age payments from Centrelink with an increase to the base rate of payment confirmed.  Single parents will also be supported when eligibility rules are expanded for Parenting Payment (Single).

Payments to increase by $40 per fortnight

The Government has announced that the base rate for a range of working age payments will increase by $40 per fortnight from 20 September 2023.

Payments that will benefit from the increase include:

  • JobSeeker Payment
  • Youth Allowance
  • Parenting Payment (Partnered)
  • Austudy
  • ABSTUDY
  • Disability Support Pension (Youth), and
  • Special Benefit.

Older Job Seekers

To recognise the barriers that older job seekers often face when looking for work such as age discrimination, the Government is expanding eligibility for the existing higher rate of JobSeeker to recipients 55 and over who have received the payment for 9 or more continuous months. This higher rate (which is $92.10 per fortnight more than the standard JobSeeker rate) is currently available to those 60 and over.

It is estimated that this change in age will help around 52,000 eligible recipients.

Eligibility to Parenting Payment for single parents expanded

From September 2023, eligible single parents, 91% of whom are women, will receive Parenting Payment (Single) until their youngest child turns 14. Currently, these parents are required to move to JobSeeker when the youngest child turns 8.

The current base rate of Parenting Payment (Single) is $922.10 per fortnight, compared to the JobSeeker Payment base rate of $745.20 per fortnight. It is hoped that the improved support for single parents will provide wellbeing benefits particularly for single mothers, who are overwhelmingly the recipients of this payment, and their children.

The release date of this document is 10 May 2023. The content of this document is of a general nature only and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation and/or needs. Accordingly, the information should not be used, relied upon, or treated as a substitute for specific financial advice. While all care has been taken in the preparation of this material, no warranty is given in respect of the information provided and accordingly neither Centrepoint Alliance Limited nor its employees or agents shall be liable on any grounds whatsoever with respect to decisions or actions taken as a result of you acting upon such information.
Sherlock Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Matrix Planning Solutions Pty Ltd AFSL & ACL No. 238256, ABN 45 087 470 200.This e-mail message is intended only for the addressee (s) and contains information which may be confidential or legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient please advise the sender by return e-mail, do not use, copy or disclose the contents, and delete the message and any attachments from your system. Unless specifically indicated, this email does not constitute formal advice or commitment by the sender or Matrix Planning Solutions Limited (ABN 45 087 470 200). Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of Matrix Planning Solutions Limited. E-mail communications cannot be guaranteed to be timely, secure, error or virus-free. The sender does not accept liability for any errors or omissions which arise as a result.

How to get super ready for EOFY?

By Andrew Sherlock, Head of Advice, Sherlock Wealth

If you are wanting to maximise your superannuation contributions, it is important to get this done before the end of the financial year.

What are the best ways to boost your retirement savings?

  • Contribute a portion of your before-tax income to your super account. When you make a voluntary personal contribution, you may even be able to claim it as a tax deduction.
  • Make a carry-forward contribution. This can be done if you have any unused concessional contribution amounts from previous financial years and your super balance is less than $500,000. This is a great way to offset your income if you have higher-than-usual earnings in the year.
  • Arrange tax-effective contributions through salary sacrifice. The Australian Taxation Office requires these arrangements to be documented prior to commencement, so if this is something you are interested in, ensure you take the time to discuss it with your employer.
  • Make non-concessional super contributions. If you have spare cash, have received an inheritance or have additional personal savings but have reached your concessional contributions limit, voluntary non-concessional contributions can be a good solution.
  • Downsizer contributions are another option if you’re aged 55 and over and plan to sell your home. You can contribute up to $300,000($600,000 for a couple) from your sale proceeds.
  • You can also make a contribution into your low-income spouse’s super account, which could provide you with a tax offset.

What are non-concessional super contributions?

Non-concessional super contributions are payments to your super from your savings or from income you have already paid tax on. These are not taxed when they are received by your super fund. Although you cannot claim a tax deduction for non-concessional contributions, they can be a great way to get money into the lower taxed super system.

How does this reduce my tax bill?

Making extra contributions before the end of the financial year can give your retirement savings a healthy boost, but it also has potential to reduce your tax bill.

  • Concessional contributions are taxed at only 15 percent, which for most people is lower than their marginal tax rate. In this case, you benefit by paying less tax compared to receiving the money as normal income.
  • If you earn more than $250,000, you may be required to pay additional tax under the Division 293 tax rules.
  • Some voluntary personal contributions may also provide a tax deduction, while the investment returns you earn on your super are only taxed at 15 percent.

Watch your annual contribution limit

It’s important to check where you stand with your annual contribution caps. These are the limits on how much you can add to your super account each year. If you exceed them, you will pay extra tax.

  • For concessional contributions, the current annual cap is $27,500 and this applies to everyone.
  • When it comes to non-concessional contributions, for most people under the age of 75 the annual limit is $110,000. Your personal cap may be different, particularly if you already have a large amount in super, so it’s a good idea to talk to your adviser before contributing.
  • There may be an opportunity to bring forward up to three years of your non-concessional caps so you can contribute up to $330,000 before the EOFY.

As always, we’re here to help. If you have any questions or would like to discuss EOFY super strategies or your eligibility to make contributions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us here.

View Andrew’s website profile here or connect with him on LinkedIn.

Andrew Sherlock is the Owner & Head of Advice at Sherlock Wealth.

A Sydney-based financial planning firm, Sherlock Wealth has been helping successful families, business owners and individuals with their wealth creation and wealth protection needs for more than two generations.

A Chartered Accountant with a background in funds management, Andrew’s career spans more than 30 years. Andrew was one of the first people in Australia to obtain the Self-Managed Superannuation Specialist accreditation and is one of only a few advisers in Australia to be a Certified Investment Management Analyst. He is a lifetime member of the international MDRT Top of the Table and holds a BA Economics degree from Macquarie University with majors in accounting and finance.

Helping clients achieve their lifestyle goals through smart investing and asset management, wealth structures, and strategic planning are the cornerstones of what Andrew and the team at Sherlock Wealth provide.

Andrew can also be contacted at ask@sherlockwealth.com.

Market Review March 2023

Month in Review as at March 2023

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Index returns at end March 2023 (%)

Data source: Bloomberg & Financial Express. Returns greater than one year are annualised.
Commentary regarding equity indices below references performance without including the effects of currency (unless specifically stated)

Key Points

  • Australian equity market was down in March with S&P/ASX 200 Index returning -0.2% driven by banking contagion fears.
  • Globally, developed markets recovered following the expectation of monetary easing with the S&P 500 Index (USD) gaining 7% and the FTSE Eurotop 100 Index (EUR) returning 1.0%.
  • In Asia the Hang Seng Index (HKD) generated a return of 3.5%, while the CSI 300 Index (CNY) finished -0.5%.

Australian equities

The month of March ended with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index down -0.2%. The primary driver was the uncertainty arising from bank failures in the US and Europe. This, coupled with high, albeit easing, inflation added to investors’ uncertain market sentiment. The Materials sector (+5.9%) rebounded with Communications (+3.4%) also performing strongly while the Property (-6.8%) and Financials ex-Property (- 4.9%) sectors were the worst performers. Over the quarter, Consumer Discretionary (+11.4%) was the best performing sector.

Materials led all sectors for the month, reaping the benefits of higher commodity prices. The Property sector sold off following concerns around commercial real estate valuations, which stemmed from investor sentiment around higher interest rates and macroeconomic headwinds. Meanwhile, the collapse of major overseas banks led to selloffs within the Financials ex-Property sector. Overall, investors grappled with the inflation-driven interest rate outlook facing central banks globally and its implications on future economic outlook.

Global equities

Global equities rallied after a sharp initial decline for the month, led by volatility across the Financial Services sector, notably Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. This was alleviated with expectations of potential easing in central bank tightening via the US Fed’s dovish outlook commentary for the year. Emerging markets performed similarly to developed market counterparts returning 3.7% (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) and 3.9% (represented by the MSCI World Ex Australia Index) in Australian dollar terms, respectively.

Investor confidence was maintained as relatively positive, with global macro data continuing to the upside. Mixed performance was seen across Asia, with China posting fresh economic stimulus geared towards growth, as well as varied reception to the Fed’s dovish comments. This was reflected by the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 Index, returning 3.5% and -0.5%, respectively (in local currency terms) for the month. In the US, indications of no further rate rise lead the rebound, with the S&P500 Index posting a monthly return of 3.7%

Over in Germany, the DAX 30 Index reported a gain of 1.7% for the month (in local currency terms) after posting decreasing manufacturing data indicating further weakness ahead, which was shared by the rest of the continent with the FTSE Eurotop 100 Index reporting similar returns of 1.0% (in local currency terms) for the month.

Property

The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Accumulation index continued to fall in March after selling off in February, with the index finishing the month –6.8% lower. Global real estate equities (represented by the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Ex Australia Index (AUD Hedged)) also regressed, returning -3.6% for the month. Australian infrastructure continued its positive momentum during March, with the S&P/ASX Infrastructure Index TR advancing 0.3% for the month.

March was relatively quiet across the A-REITs sector. Some activity includes Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) announcing the acquisition of a NSW glasshouse. The deal is worth $323m and is an addition to their agriculture fund which has seen rapid growth since inception. This acquisition increases the group’s total agriculture AUM to over $500m and cements Centuria as Australia’s biggest large-scale glasshouse landlord.

The Australian residential property market increased by 0.8% month on month in March represented by Core Logic’s five capital city aggregate. Sydney (+1.4%) and Melbourne (+0.6%) were the best performers whilst Adelaide (-0.1%) was the only city to regress during March.

Fixed Income

At the start of March, the RBA raised the cash rate target by 25bps to 3.6%, stating global inflation remains high and is expected to take some time before it returns to target rates, while growth in the Australian economy has slowed and is expected to be below trend. However, uncertainty within the global financial sector was reflected across the Australian 2- and 10-year Government bond yields which fell by 70bps and 56bps, respectively. Australian fixed income performed strongly during the month with the Bloomberg Ausbond Composite 0+ Yr Index returning 3.2%.

Globally, markets were jolted by the financial sector woes in the US and Europe, which significantly impacted financial conditions and bond yields during the month. A California-based regional bank (SVB) failed, leading to the second biggest US bank failure in history, and a further two regional banks went into administration.

Over in Europe, UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse caused turmoil in bond markets, with Swiss authorities allowing Credit Suisse’s riskiest bonds to be wiped out, and equity holders receiving a small amount of equity in UBS as part of the transaction. The US 2- and 10- year Government bond yields fell by 80bps and 45bps, respectively. The Fed continued to raise rates for the ninth consecutive time to 4.75%-5%, demonstrating their commitment to ending the inflation problem despite the banking crisis. In the United Kingdom, GILT yields followed the US, as 2- and 10-Year Gilt yields fell 60bps and 22bps, respectively.

Key points

  • Central banks moved swiftly to avoid banking collapse with Credit Suisse bought out by UBS and emergency cash provided to several US banks.
  • RBA increased the cash rate by 25%, taking it to 3.6%.
  • Both the Fed and ECB raised interest rates in response to persistently high inflation.

Australia

The RBA increased the cash rate by 25bps at its March meeting, bringing the rate to 3.6%. The annual inflation rate slowed to 6.8% in February, led by smaller rises for fuel and housing, adding to evidence that the worst of the price increases has passed.

February’s unemployment rate was 3.5%, against expectations of 3.6%, with the economy adding 64,600 jobs. Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, suggesting that retail turnover has levelled out after the volatility of the previous three months.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment for March was unchanged at 78.5 with areas of most concern being inflation, interest rates and the general economy. Composite PMI fell to 48.5 in March as manufacturing and service sectors recorded declines in activities that led to a broad deterioration in private sector output. The NAB business confidence index came in at 16 in March, well above its long-run average.

The trade surplus increased to $13.9 billion in February, above the market forecasts of $11.1billion.

Global

March was tumultuous month for markets as several small/mid-sized banks in the US shut down and depositors redeemed their money as questions about the viability of these banks gained momentum. This was followed by one of the cornerstone establishments of Swiss banking, Credit Suisse,  being bought out by UBS to avoid a banking collapse and possible contagion across the global banking sector.

While these bank failures may have bought back memories of the GFC of 2008, the sector as a whole has significantly de-risked since 2008, notably in terms of increased Tier 1 capital ratios. Central banks also quickly stepped in with the provision of emergency cash, which seemed to settle markets.

US

The Federal Reserve raised the cash rate by 25bps to 5.00% in March as inflation remained elevated. Inflation came in 0.1% higher for March, against expectations of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 5.0%.

Non-farm payrolls added 36,000 new jobs in March. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% in March, better than market expectations of 3.6%.

Consumer confidence increased in February to 104.2 but remains below the average seen last year. Retail sales fell 0.4% month-on-month in February, more than the expected 0.3% fall.

The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.3 in March, showing a modest rise in business activity mainly led by a steeper increase in service sector output. PPI dropped 0.1%in February against market expectations of a 0.3% increase, with the annual rate easing to 4.6% and missing the market forecast of 5.4%.

Balance of trade deficit widened to US$70.5 billion in February, above the expected US$69 billion.

Euro zone

The ECB increased the cash rate by 50bps to 3.5% in its March meeting as inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. The ECB released revised inflation forecasts and now see inflation averaging 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, with underlying price pressures remaining strong.

The annual inflation rate came in at 6.9% in March below the expected 7.1%, signaling that inflationary pressure remains high in Europe. Unemployment remained steady at 6.6% in February against expectations of 6.7%.

Consumer confidence edged down to -19.2 in March as consumers were less positive about the economy. Retail sales dropped 0.8% in February, matching market expectations, with the annual rate coming in at -3.0%. January’s unemployment rate came in at a record low of 6.6%, slightly below market expectations of 6.7%.

The Composite PMI rose to 53.7 in March, helped by the strongest increase in service sector activity in 10 months. PPI dropped 0.5% % in February, more than the expected -0.3% decrease, with the annual rate easing to 13.2% below the anticipated 13.3%.

UK

The Bank of England raised rates by 25bps to 4.25% in March, on the back of persistently high inflations. GDP posted a 0.1% increase in 4Q22, expanding on the 0.1% decline in the prior month whilst the annual rate came in at 0.6%.

Inflation unexpectedly rose 1.1% in February, bringing the annual rate to 10.4%, well above the expected 9.9%. This jump was largely due to surging food price inflation which is running at 18%.

Consumer confidence rose to -36 in March, matching market expectations. The annual retail sales rate rose 5.1%, well ahead of the 12-month average of 2.6%. in March, buoyed by Mother’s Day spending.

The composite PMI index fell dropped to 52.2 in March, supported by increased output in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

PPI fell 0.3% in February, missing the market expectations of a 0.2% rise, with the annual rate easing to 12.1%, slightly below the anticipated 12.4%.

China

The Chinese government set a growth target of 5% for 2023, which it acknowledges will not be easy to achieve. The country’s economic rebound remained uneven in March with the services sector seeing a strong recovery but the manufacturing sector losing momentum amid still-weak export orders. The annual inflation rate unexpectedly came in at 0.7% in March 2023, compared with market consensus of 1.0%.

The unemployment rate increased to 5.6% in February. Retail sales expanded 3.5% from the prior year in combined figures for January-February 2023, matching market consensus and shifting from a 1.8% fall in December.

Composite PMI increased to 54.5 in March, the third straight period of growth in private sector activity and the strongest pace since last June amid the removal of strict pandemic measures.

Asia region

The Bank of Japan maintained its key short terms interest rate at -0.1% at its March meeting.

Inflation decreased 0.6% month on month and to 3.3% annually in February, the lowest rate since last September as fuel and electricity charges dropped for the first time since May 2021.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in February, above the 2.4% forecast.

The consumer confidence index rose to 33.9 in March, above market forecast of 31.9, as households’ sentiment strengthened across all indices. Retail Sales in Japan decreased 4.4% in February, with the annual rate rising 6.6%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.8%.

The Composite PMI rose to 52.9 in March, the steepest pace in activity since June 2022, reflecting the dissipating impact of the pandemic.

Currencies

The Australian dollar (AUD) continued to descend over the month of March, closing -1.8% lower in trade weighted terms to 60.3. The AUD depreciated relative to all four major currencies referenced in this update.

The trading range of the AUD/USD tightened over March after being elevated for the first two months of the year. Volatility continued to be dominated by global central bank interest rate policy and inflation indicators, in addition to the emergence of a potential banking crisis with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Relative to the AUD, the Japanese Yen (JPY) led the pack in March, appreciating by 3.2%. Conversely, the US dollar (USD) was the laggard of the month, albeit with a positive relative return of 1.0% relative to the AUD. Year-on-year, the AUD is now weaker than the USD, Euro (EUR), Pound Sterling (GBP) and JPY by – 10.8%, -8.8%, -5.0% and -2.6%, respectively.

Important notice: This document is published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No.421445 (Lonsec).
Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is a “class service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) or limited to “General
Advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001(Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (‘financial circumstances’) of any particular person. It is not a “personalised service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) and does not constitute a recommendation to purchase, redeem or sell the relevant financial product(s).
Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Research Pty Ltd (ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445) (Lonsec). This report is subject to copyright of Lonsec. Except for the temporary copy held in a computer’s cache and a single permanent copy for your personal reference or other than as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this report may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, micro-copying, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of Lonsec. This report may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. Any such material is the intellectual property of that third party or its content providers. The same restrictions applying above to Lonsec copyrighted material, applies to such third party content.
Sherlock Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Matrix Planning Solutions Pty Ltd AFSL & ACL No. 238256, ABN 45 087 470 200.

Market Review January 2023

Monthly Market Review – January 2023

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How the different asset classes have fared: (As at 31 January 2023)

Data source: Bloomberg & Financial Express. Returns greater than one year are annualised.
Commentary regarding equity indices below references performance without including the effects of currency (unless specifically stated).

Key Points

  • Equity markets had a strong month with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index returning 2%. All sectors of the market finished the month in positive territory led by Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Property.
  • Globally, developed markets performed strongly with the S&P 500 Index (USD) returning 3% and the FTSE Eurotop 100 Index (EUR) returning 6.6%.
  • Likewise, in Asia the Hang Seng Index (HKD) generated a strong return of 4% and the CSI 300 Index (CNY) finished up 7.4%.

Australian equities

The Australian market commenced the year convincingly, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index rising by 6.2% and every sector finishing positively apart from the Utilities (-3.0%) sector. In particular, the gain represents the best start to the year since the inception of the Index. The Consumer Discretionary (+9.9%) and Materials (+8.9%) sectors led the market as investor optimism around the future cash rate and inflation trajectory in an Australian and global context buoyed the broader market.

The Utilities sector was the biggest laggard as investors pivoted away from more defensive sectors in favour of more cyclical exposures. The Consumer Discretionary sector performed robustly as companies reported earnings. The Materials sector performed strongly as several commodities continued their recent rally on the back of the China re-opening demand. Further, the volatility in the Australian market was relatively subdued. Broadly speaking, the more ‘growth’ oriented and interest-rate sensitive sectors exhibited solid performance as investors weighed up the potential for central bank policy rate cuts in Australia and other global economies.

Global equities

Global equities started on a positive note as optimistic views around inflation fed through to possibilities around an ease in central bank tightening. Emerging markets outperformed developed market counterparts returning 3.8% (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (AUD)) versus a 3.0% gain according to the MSCI World Ex Australia Index (AUD).

Investor confidence was elevated during the month as global macro data surprised to the upside combined with China reopening earlier than expected. This was reflected by the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 Index, returning 10.4% and 7.4% respectively (in local currency terms) for the month. In the US, over a third of companies have reported, with earnings in aggregate being 0.6% above consensus and the S&P500 Index posting a monthly return of 6.3% (in local currency terms). Over in Germany, the DAX 30 Index reported a gain of 8.7% for the month (in local currency terms) as it continued to benefit from the easing of supply disruptions, a decline in the risk of gas rationing and further fiscal support.

Property

The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Accumulation index had a strong start to the calendar year advancing during January, with the index finishing the month 8.1% higher. Global real estate equities (represented by the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Ex Australia Index (AUD Hedged)) also finished strongly, advancing 8.2% for the month. Australian infrastructure performed well during January, with the S&P/ASX Infrastructure Index TR advancing 1.9% for the month.

The positive start to the year is a welcome sight for REIT investors, as the listed property sector suffered a material decline in 2022. 2022 was the worst-performing year for REITs since the global financial crisis. Capital raising is expected to be a prominent theme in Q1 this year with the significant change in debt markets and cost of capital. In the global REITs market, we have already seen eight capital offering instruments in January, raising a total of $4.1bn in capital, in contrast to the $250m raised in December.

The Australian residential property market experienced a –1.1% change month on month in January represented by Core Logic’s five capital city aggregate. Brisbane (- 1.4%), Sydney (-1.2%), Melbourne (-1.1%) and Adelaide (-0.3%) all performed poorly whilst (0%) stayed relatively neutral.

Fixed Income

With no RBA meeting in January, there has been a pause on rate hikes, with rates expected to rise once again in February. This led to Australian 2- and 10- year Government bond yields falling by 23bps and 50bps, respectively. The fall in bond yields resulted in almost every fixed income sector being in the green, resulting in the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index to return 2.7% over the course of the month. Inflation has now risen to 7.8%, over the past 12 months to December, and CPI rose 1.9% this December quarter according to ABS data.

Globally, fixed income markets showed a mixed story, with US markets bracing for another rate hike in the next Federal Reserve Meeting on February 1. US 10-year Bond yields rose 37bps and US 90 Day T-Bill yields rose 30bps. In the United Kingdom, markets also await the return of the BoE meetings in February, with the current January bank rate sitting at 3.50%. Over January, U.K. 2 Year Gilt yields fell 11bps and U.K. 10 Year Gilt yields by 34bps.

Key points

  • World Bank projects the global economy to grow by 7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
  • Australian inflation for Q4 2022 rose to 8%, putting pressure on the RBA to increase the cash rate at its next meeting.
  • The IMF forecasts the UK economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023 and be the only advanced economy to be in recession.

Australia

No RBA meeting was held in January, so the cash rate remained at 3.1%. However, as inflation remains high, the RBA is expected to raise rates when it meets in early February. The annual inflation rate for the December quarter rose to 7.8%, above the market forecast 7.5%, driven by rising food, fuel and new dwelling construction costs.

The unemployment rate rose marginally to 3.5% in December, above the market estimate of 3.4%. Retail sales fell 3.9% in December, amid high cost of living pressures and a change in buying patterns as shoppers took advantage of heaving discounting in November.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment for January increased to 84.3, the largest monthly gain since April 2021. However, Westpac expects the Reserve Bank Board to continue its interest rate policy tightening in February which may impact future consumer sentiment. Composite PMI rose to 48.5 in January, with a contraction in services and the Services PMI below the 50.0 neutral level. The NAB business confidence index rose 3 points to -1 in December, staying in negative territory for a second month and below its long-run average.

The trade surplus narrowed to $12.2 billion in December, just below the market forecasts of $12.5 billion.

Global

The World Bank released its Global Economic Prospects report, projecting the global economy to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. This sharp downturn in growth will be widespread in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Bank projects growth in advanced economies to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023, with the US forecast at 0.5%, the Euro-zone at 0% and China at 4.3% for 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession.

US

The Federal Reserve did not meet in January, so rates remained at 4.5%. Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly added 517,000 new jobs in January, well ahead of expectations of 185,000, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, profession and business services and health care. The unemployment rate was lower than expected at 3.4%. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to 107.1 in January as households continued to worry about the economy’s prospects over the next six months. Retail sales declined 1.1% month-on-month in December, greater than the expected 0.8% fall, as holiday shopping was pulled forward into October.

The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 46.8 in January indicating a softer contraction than in previous months. PPI fell 0.5% in December, adding to signs that inflationary pressure is easing, with the annual rate increasing to 6.2%, the lowest rate since March 2021.

The US trade deficit widened to $67.4 billion in December, against the forecast $68.5 billion.

Euro zone

The annual inflation rate in the Euro area fell to 8.5% in January, below the expected 9.0% with energy prices rising at a slower pace but food, alcohol and tobacco rising by 13.8%.

Consumer confidence rose to -20.9 in January, the highest since February 2022 on hopes lower energy prices and recovery fund spending might help avoid a recession. Retail sales declined 2.7% in December, while the annual rate dropped 2.8%, in a sign that rising prices and interest rates are weighing on consumer spending. November’s unemployment rate was stable at 6.6%, above market forecasts of 6.5%.

The Composite PMI rose to 50.3 in January, pointing to the first month of expansion in private sector since June 2022, helped by a rebound in services activity.

PPI rose 1.1% in December, well above the expected 0.4% with the annual rate easing further to 24.6%, well above the expected 22.5%.

UK

Inflation eased to 10.5% in December, the lowest rate in three months and matching the market forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to around 8.0 percent by mid-2023, and to around 4.0% towards the end of the year.

Consumer confidence fell to -45 in January, well below the expected -40, as consumers continue to grapple with persistently high inflation and soaring energy bills. Retail sales dropped 1.0% in December as consumers cut back on spending due to increased prices and affordability concerns. The annual rate dropped 5.8%, well below the forecast 4.1% decline.

The composite PMI index fell to 48.5, marginally below the 49 in December.

The IMF predicts that the UK economy will contract 0.6% in 2023 and be the only advanced economy to be in recession this year. It tempered this news by stating that it now believes the country is on the right track and expects the economy to grow 0.9% in 2024.

China

China’s economy slowed sharply only growing 3% in 2022, well below the official target of 5.5% for the year. The population also shrank for the first time since 1961 and combined with an ageing population, will have implications for future economic growth.

Prices were stable in December, with the annual rate rising to 1.8%, which is line with forecasts.

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% in December amid easing of zero-COVID policy restrictions.

Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in January, buoyed by the removal of harsh pandemic measures. Retail sales fell 0.14% in December, with the annual rate dropping 1.8%, much better than the expected 8.6% fall.

Asia region

The Bank of Japan maintained its key short terms interest rate at -0.1% at its January meeting. In its quarterly report, the bank lowered its FY23 GDP outlook from 1.9% to 1.7%.

Inflation increased 0.3% month on month and 4.0% annually in December, the highest reading since January 1991, amid higher process for imported raw commodities and continued weakness of the yen.

The unemployment rate was unchanged 2.5% in December, in line with forecasts. Wage growth jumped 4.8% in December on the back of a surge in special payments which helped overall wage growth.

The consumer confidence index in Japan increased to 31.0 in January as the economy continues to recover from pandemic disruptions. Retail Sales in Japan rose 1.1% in December, almost double the market consensus of a 0.6% rise, with the annual rate rising 3.8%.

The Composite PMI rose to 50.7 in January, with growth in the service sector due to the National Travel Discount Program.

Currencies

The Australian dollar (AUD) gained ground over the first month of 2023, closing 1.6% higher in trade weighted terms to 62.4. Additionally, the AUD appreciated against all four major currencies referenced in this update.

Volatility over the month was generally moderated as January welcomed positive risk sentiment among investors with equity and bond markets alike experiencing a lift. Given the broad shift of inflation into decline across the globe, investor confidence has buoyed as an end to the rate hike cycle seemingly approaches. This sentiment, coupled with strong expectations of growth from the reopening Chinese economy in 2023 has provided support to Australian exported commodities and consequently the AUD.

Relative to the AUD, the Pound Sterling (GBP) led the pack in January, albeit with a negative return of -1.5%. Conversely, the US dollar (USD) was the laggard of the month falling by -3.5%. Year-on-year, the AUD remains ahead of the Japanese Yen (JPY), GBP and now the Euro (EUR) by 12.9%, 8.8% and 3.1% respectively. However, the AUD continues to modestly trail the USD by -0.2%.

Important notice: This document is published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No.421445 (Lonsec).
Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is a “class service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) or limited to “General Advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001(Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (‘financial circumstances’) of any particular person. It is not a “personalised service” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ)) and does not constitute a recommendation to purchase, redeem or sell the relevant financial product(s).
Copyright © 2023 Lonsec Research Pty Ltd (ABN 11 151 658 561, AFSL No. 421445) (Lonsec). This report is subject to copyright of Lonsec. Except for the temporary copy held in a computer’s cache and a single permanent copy for your personal reference or other than as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this report may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, micro-copying, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission of Lonsec. This report may also contain third party supplied material that is subject to copyright. Any such material is the intellectual property of that third party or its content providers. The same restrictions applying above to Lonsec copyrighted material, applies to such third party content.
Sherlock Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Matrix Planning Solutions Pty Ltd AFSL & ACL No. 238256, ABN 45 087 470 200.

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